INSPIRE NEIGHBORHOOD FUTURES
  • ABOUT
    • What is SafeGrowth? >
      • SafeGrowth language
    • What we can do
    • Summits & Search Conferences >
      • 2017 Calgary
      • 2016 New Orleans >
        • Event Photos
      • 2016 Sacramento >
        • Event Photos
      • 2015 Canmore >
        • Event Photos
    • Media & Press Coverage >
      • Video
      • Press
    • Likeminded
    • Friends of SafeGrowth
  • RESOURCES
    • SafeGrowth theory >
      • What makes great neighborhoods?
      • Four tenets
      • Recommended readings
    • SafeGrowth documents & related publications
    • Video
    • TED-Ed tutorials >
      • SafeGrowth - Crime & the 21st Century City
      • Vision-Based Asset Mapping
    • Publications
  • BOOK
  • BLOG
  • ADVOCATES & PRACTITIONERS
  • TOOLKIT (PASSWORD ACCESS)
    • RISK ASSESSMENT FOR NEIGHBORHOODS >
      • Notes for SafeGrowth teams
      • RA Categories-Neighborhoods
      • Report guidance >
        • Report structure
        • Sample reports
      • Readings for download
      • Glossary
    • RISK ASSESSMENT FOR REGULATORS >
      • RA Categories-Regulators
  • CONTACT US

SAFEGROWTH® BLOG

Medical magic to cut murders?

11/1/2014

0 Comments

 

Awhile back I wrote about the murder rate gap between BC and Washington State and listed a few theories to explain it: An aging crime-prone demographic; handgun availability.

There was one theory I missed or, rather, ignored.

The Wall Street Journal, however, didn't: "In medical triumph, homicides fall despite soaring gun violence". Murder is down, says WSJ, due to a buffet of medical morsels; better medicine, quicker paramedic responses, the spread of trauma centers.

WSJ spares no marvel in the new buffet: doctoring skills brought back from the Afghan and Iraq wars; helicopters to ferry patients to emergency wards.

A week ago CBC Ottawa joined the chorus.

Apparently, says CBC Ottawa, murders are declining even though gun violence is up. For proof just look at jumps in attempted murder rates (I did). Those are the victims saved in the emergency wards by better medicine!

As Star Trek engineer Mr. Scott says in another fantasy show, "It's a fine bit of reasoning, indeed!"

Except it's wrong. The numbers don't add up to support the medical theory.

Statistics Canada rates for murder and attempted murder follow similar paths. The theory suggests they shouldn't. Look at the patterns.

Picture
Source: Statistics Canada

There might be something valid in 1975 when the rates crossed paths (but not accounted for in this theory about "recent" medical improvements). Afterwards, as one dips so does the other.

If the medical theory was right the gap between murder and attempts should widen. It doesn't. In fact the gap actually narrows since the late 1990s. Is medicine cutting those murders but having no impact on attempts? Only if police are not recording attempted murder victims, perhaps hiding them somewhere else in the stats? That's unlikely and the data do not support it.

I crunched the Ottawa crime stats to look a bit closer. Again, the data tell another story. Check out the chart.

Picture
Ottawa murder and attempts decline together

As murder drops so do attempts. Murders ebb but attempts don't flow as the theory predicts. There is something very rotten in the medical buffet. As the UNC School of Government blog concludes; "Medical progress, probably. Medical triumph, I doubt."

Medicine has improved. Better doctors and technology is incredible. That's good news. As well, we have methods to cut crime; SafeGrowth, CPTED, Ceasefire, problem-oriented policing, neighborhood reinvestment. That's good news too. But confusing matters with unproven theories is neither scientific nor helpful.

When will reporters and their editors start chasing facts and stop chasing slick headlines?  No wonder the public is so ill-informed about policing, crime and its prevention.

0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.


    AUTHORS

    Gregory Saville
    Mateja Mihinjac

    Tarah Hodgkinson


    CATEGORIES

    All
    Art
    Bladerunner
    CCTV
    Change Agent
    Civility
    Community Building
    Community Empowerment
    Community Engagement
    Community Safety
    Connectivity
    CPTED
    Creativity
    Criminology
    Culture
    Defensible Space
    Design Out Crime
    Diversity
    Emotional Intelligence
    Ethics
    Evidence Based
    Evidence-based
    Eyes On The Street
    Fear Of Crime
    Graffiti
    HACE
    Health
    Homelessness
    Housing
    Human Scale Design
    Inclusiveness
    Latin America
    Law
    Lighting
    LISC
    Livability
    Livability Academy
    Lovability
    Neighborhood Governance
    Neighborhood Hubs
    Neighborhood Transformation
    Placemaking
    Policing
    Politics
    Problem-based Learning
    Public Health
    Quality Of Life
    Rural Crime
    SafeGrowth
    Safety Audits
    San Romanoway
    Science
    Security
    Sitability
    Social Cohesion
    Social Ecology
    Social Justice
    Space Activation
    Street Walkability
    Suburbs
    Successful Places
    Surveillance
    Sustainability
    Target Hardening
    Technology
    Third Generation CPTED
    Urbanism
    Violence


    ARCHIVES

    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    November 2009
    October 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009
    April 2009
    March 2009
    February 2009


SafeGrowth® 2007-2019   SafeGrowth.org. ​
All Rights Reserved
​.


SafeGrowth is a people-based planning method for creating 21st Century neighborhoods of imagination, livability, and safety. It develops new relationships between city government and residents in order to prevent crime and plan for the future. While technology and evidence-based practice plays a role, SafeGrowth is based on community building through annual SafeGrowth plans and neighborhood problem-solving teams networked throughout the city.​

CONTACT US

Submit
  • ABOUT
    • What is SafeGrowth? >
      • SafeGrowth language
    • What we can do
    • Summits & Search Conferences >
      • 2017 Calgary
      • 2016 New Orleans >
        • Event Photos
      • 2016 Sacramento >
        • Event Photos
      • 2015 Canmore >
        • Event Photos
    • Media & Press Coverage >
      • Video
      • Press
    • Likeminded
    • Friends of SafeGrowth
  • RESOURCES
    • SafeGrowth theory >
      • What makes great neighborhoods?
      • Four tenets
      • Recommended readings
    • SafeGrowth documents & related publications
    • Video
    • TED-Ed tutorials >
      • SafeGrowth - Crime & the 21st Century City
      • Vision-Based Asset Mapping
    • Publications
  • BOOK
  • BLOG
  • ADVOCATES & PRACTITIONERS
  • TOOLKIT (PASSWORD ACCESS)
    • RISK ASSESSMENT FOR NEIGHBORHOODS >
      • Notes for SafeGrowth teams
      • RA Categories-Neighborhoods
      • Report guidance >
        • Report structure
        • Sample reports
      • Readings for download
      • Glossary
    • RISK ASSESSMENT FOR REGULATORS >
      • RA Categories-Regulators
  • CONTACT US